Soy only works if your gut can turn it into equol, so find out whether you are an equol producer, and if you are not, buy the equol directly.
The producer split is real and measurable. The paper that set the standard test found 59 percent of 29 vegetarians and 25 percent of 12 non-vegetarians were producers, and noted the vegetarian figure resembles reported frequencies in Japanese adults eating soy. Those group sizes are small, and the widely repeated claim that about a quarter to a third of Western adults are producers is consistent with this study rather than established by it.
Equol taken directly does something. In 160 postmenopausal Japanese women selected for being non-producers, 10 mg a day for twelve weeks cut hot flushes by 1.9 a day against 1.0 a day on placebo, from a starting point of about three a day. That is a real difference of about nine-tenths of one flush a day, and the placebo group improved by a third on its own.
What has not been shown is the step the story depends on: that being a producer makes soy itself work better. The 2023 North American Menopause Society statement does not recommend equol for hot flushes.
The metabolic split is real, the supplement does something small, and the link between the two is the part nobody has demonstrated.